Earth’s Temperature Is Heating Up Twice as Fast as It Did in the Past, and the Effects Are Already Seen

Since 2014, Earth has warmed by 0.36°C per decade, which is twice as fast as before. This accelerated warming could push the planet past critical climate thresholds much sooner than anticipated, leading to irreversible environmental damage.

The new findings, presented by climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf from the University of Potsdam, Germany, suggest that this rapid warming could push Earth beyond the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement as early as 2028, well ahead of other projections.

Warming at an Accelerated Rate

According to an analysis published in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters, of five major temperature datasets, global temperatures have sharply increased since 2014. Before this period, the planet warmed at a rate of 0.18°C per decade. But since 2014, this rate has nearly doubled, reaching 0.36°C per decade. This shift is linked to several factors, including changes in global emissions and a reduction in pollutants such as sulphur dioxide, which had been masking some of the warming effects.

Rahmstorf‘s team used data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to confirm that, based on a 20-year average, global temperatures could reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this year. This would happen several years ahead of predictions made by other models.

“Every tenth of a degree matters and makes the impact of global warming worse in terms of extreme weather events, in terms of ecosystem impacts, also the risk of crossing tipping points,” Rahmstorf said.

Who’s Really Heating Up Earth?

Rahmstorf‘s analysis suggests that the acceleration of warming goes beyond these temporary effects. While El Niño, which caused temperature spikes in 2023 and 2024, does affect global averages, the increase in long-term warming cannot be explained by this phenomenon alone.

The study, which shows a statistically significant acceleration with 98 percent confidence, provides a clearer picture of the impact of human activity.

The reduction in air pollutants, especially sulphur dioxide from shipping emissions, is another key factor. Although this pollution harms human health, it also formed a protective layer of aerosols that blocked sunlight, cooling the planet. Since the reduction of these emissions in 2020, this protective barrier has weakened.

Critical Tipping Points Looming

Scientists are particularly concerned about the irreversible melting of ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica. If temperatures rise too much, these regions could begin to lose ice irreversibly, raising sea levels dramatically.

Beyond these immediate threats, broader ecological shifts are also a concern. Rahmstorf and his team warn that the acceleration of warming could push the Earth past other critical thresholds, such as the collapse of the Amazon rainforest or the disruption of large-scale ocean currents. And as Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth in California:

“The broader takeaway is that we have strong evidence for acceleration even if we don’t know precisely how much the rate of warming has increased as of yet,” he said “We will need to wait a few more years to get more data.”

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